Commentary: Cross-strait relations loom large in Taiwan’s presidential election

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Each of the presidential candidates from Taiwan’s three main parties promises a different approach to relations with China, says Wen-Chi Yang from National Chengchi University.

But recent elections have shown increasing voter dissatisfaction with polarisation. In 2014, independent candidate Ko Wen-je became the mayor of Taipei and was re-elected in 2018. In 2019, Ko founded the Taiwan People’s Party , which emphasises technocracy and transparency.

In Taiwan and elsewhere, the third way calls for a new approach to politics that transcends traditional left-right distinctions and seeks to find a middle ground while emphasising pragmatic governance and welfare reform. The KMT’s presidential candidate is vague on the China question. The KMT engages Beijing through the so-called 1992 Consensus, which is understood as “one China with respective interpretations” by both China and Taiwan.

All three candidates have adopted ambiguous positions on China policy, preferring to observe public sentiment before formulating their views to secure the most votes. But history suggests that either a DPP or KMT victory would likely see a continuation of each party’s existing policies. Based on three important indicators — the probability of war, economic outlooks and the possibility of improving cross-Strait relations, Ko appears to be the most pragmatic choice for Taiwan’s next president. He may also be the easiest for China to swallow. The major question now is whether the non-progressive camp can consolidate.

 

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