The Elkhorn Fire charred more than 20,000 acres in central Idaho’s Payette and Nez Perce-Clearwater national forests on July 30, 2023, burning along 10 miles of the Salmon River and destroying two historic ranch compounds. Credit: Brian Maffly, University of Utah
“This is a really clear case of where we need cutting-edge science and tools to tell us what are the risks and how are they possibly or likely to change this century due to climate change,” said Anderegg, who studies forest ecology. “Climate change is going to drive wildfire and disturbance risks up and is already driving them up. Insurers leaving states like California really underscores that.”
“We find that property values exposed to these climate-sensitive disturbances increase sharply in future climate scenarios, particularly in existing high-risk regions of the western U.S.,” the study determined, “and that novel exposure risks emerge in some currently lower-risk regions, such as the southeast and Great Lakes regions.”
The study deliberately avoided identifying specific areas at risk, but even a casual glance at Western real estate gives an idea of where the trouble spots are. Northern Utah’s more valuable residential property happens to be located in scenic locales, such as Emigration Canyon and Summit Park, that face severe wildfire risks.
Center for Natural and Technological Hazards with Grineski. “What the results show is that under a scenario in which we actually try to mitigate emissions in a way that reduces impacts of climate change, you see substantially less property value at risk in the future.” Wooded areas can be desirable places to live, but if the trees die or burn, such properties lose their appeal and their market value will erode accordingly.