medical journal, a sobering figure that marks exactly two years since the World Health Organization declared a coronavirus pandemic.Getty ImagesAn estimated 18.2 million more people around the world died between January 1 2020 and December 31 2021 than would have been expected based on past trends, according to an analysis of data from a number of government and international databases including the World Mortality Database, Human Mortality Database, and European Statistical Office.
The researchers said the figure—known as “excess deaths” or “excess mortality”—paints a more “accurate” picture of deaths due to the pandemic than the official count suggests, which was three times smaller, 5.9 million, at the end of 2021. Excess deaths can be higher than official counts for a number of reasons, such as issues with reporting data and a lack of testing for coronavirus, and cover those may have died because of, but not necessarily from, Covid-19, such as people unable to access medical care for other problems or who had pre-existing conditions worsened by Covid.
The estimate means the pandemic caused six excess deaths for every 5,000 people in the world over the two years studied, though this figure varies dramatically across countries and regions and in 21 countries this exceeded 15 excess deaths for every 5,000 people. In absolute terms, the researchers estimated seven countries accounted for more than half of all excess deaths over the past two years: India , the U.S. , Russia , Mexico , Brazil , Indonesia , and Pakistan .“Understanding the true death toll from the pandemic is vital for effective public health decision-making,” said lead researcher Dr. Haidong Wang, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
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