School closures and elderly COVID fears more to blame for labor shortage than unemployment benefits, UBS says

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The labor picture in America right now is confusing, especially following a dismal jobs report.Economists at UBS say school closure and COVID fears may be main reasons behind the lack of labor.The labor picture in America right now is, in a word, confusing. With reopening fueling hopes of an economic boom, April brought aThe reactions from different sectors have been swift.

they'll halt their participation in additional unemployment benefits, subscribing to the theory that higher UI benefits are keeping people out of the workforce., it is certainly possible for workers to be making more on unemployment than minimum wage. But even those numbers don't tell the full story; in most states, the total weekly benefits are still lower than the average weekly wage.

In a research note, UBS economists led by Andrew Dubinsky offer some answers on what they think is causing the current labor market tightness. Notably, they say, people with young kids and those over 55 have driven the drop in the labor force. "In our view, these facts suggest that the lack of full school reopening, as well as some Covid fears among the older cohorts, are among the main drivers of the lack of labor supply," the economists write.

 

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