In December 2019, Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to a historic victory that redrew the map of British politics – winning seats in the north of England and midlands that had been held by Labour for generations. If the polls are to be believed, Keir Starmer's Labour is on the cusp of inflicting a heavy defeat on Rishi Sunak's Conservatives.
The projected result for 2024 does not point to a significant reversal of this pattern, though it does seem that the link between the relationship is perhaps weakening slightly. Compared to those seats won by Tony Blair in 1997, the distribution of Labour's vote on 4 July is likely to be higher in places with more graduates and lower in areas with a more working-class electorate. But the party is likely to do similarly as well in areas of high socio-economic deprivation.