Commentary: The world came dangerously close to full-scale conflict in the South China Sea

This frame grab from handout video shows China coast guard personnel appearing to wield bladed weapons during an incident off Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal was the most serious ever documented. Things could have easily escalated beyond a Filipino sailor’s severed thumb - but for a measure of restraint and a whole lot of luck.

Some of the Philippine Navy personnel involved in the mission are highly-trained elite forces from the Naval Special Operations Command. This incident might have ended in an uglier manner if they had vigorously fought back against the comparatively less well-trained Chinese coast guards. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr delivers a keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 31, 2024.

The Jun 17 incident yielded some vital data points: Manila’s reticence to escalate tensions and Washington’s apparent ambivalence about committing more robust forms of support to the Philippines even without invoking the Mutual Defense Treaty. The risk of a premeditated armed conflict in the South China Sea, over Second Thomas Shoal in particular, remains low. The bigger worry is either country sleepwalking into a fight.

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Source: ChannelNewsAsia - 🏆 6. / 66 Read more »