Some schools in England could be forced to close as falling pupil numbers could make it difficult for them to remain financially viable, a report has warned.
Under a scenario where all schools receive a 0.5 per cent real terms increase in pupil-led per-pupil funding each year, researchers predict that overall funding for primary and secondary state schools will fall to £41.6 billion by 2029/30, down from a peak of £42.7 billion in 2024/25.A population bulge in England has been moving from primary schools into secondary schools.
“Faced with this challenge, some of the most severely affected schools will struggle to stay viable. As these schools feel the squeeze, they will be forced to consider alternatives: mergers with other schools, difficult cost-cutting measures, and ultimately school closures.” “Most school funding is allocated on a per-pupil basis. As a result, falling pupil numbers can mean lower budgets for schools whilst not lowering costs in the same way, given these are largely fixed.
These figures are speculative, funding levels beyond 2024/25 have not yet been confirmed and are subject to future spending reviews