Spectroradiometer on NASA’s Terra satellite, Hurricane Ian enters the Gulf of Mexico at 16:00 UTC on September 27, 2022, just hours after it moved off the northwest coast of Cuba. The storm is expected to bring a potentially life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds. Each year the Atlantic hurricane season happens, and this year will be no exception. Another staple of the year is seasonal predictions of hurricane activity.
Current sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin are already warmer than normal and exceed where they were at this time last year so buckle up. It is also important to keep seasonal predictions in perspective:Accuracy can vary, but with strong signals apparent this year and in previous analogue years, uncertainty is lower.Use the information at hand for general planning, but pay attention to evolving conditions as the season gets going.