Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan just experienced what analysts deem his worst political setback in more than two decades.
After all, Erdogan’s own political career took off after his successful stint as mayor of Istanbul three decades ago. Born in the metropolis to humble migrants from Turkey’s Black Sea coast, Erdogan first staked his legitimacy on his record of competent, ambitious governance, including construction booms and vast public works carried out under his watch in Istanbul.
But a new crop of talent — from Kilicdaroglu’s successor Ozgur Ozel to Imamoglu himself, who can claim a similar everyman identity as Erdogan — is leading the way. And they are building broader coalitions. In Sunday’s election, many CHP candidates outside the predominantly Kurdish southeast were boosted by the support of ethnic Kurdish voters, who backed the candidates that could defeat the AKP as a protest vote against Erdogan.
There are no major elections slated for the next four years. Erdogan will probably seek to extend his rule in 2028, moving to “reconstitute the club,” as Soner Cagaptay, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, put it, of right-wing nationalists and Islamists that help him and the AKP secure more than 50 percent of the vote. But it may be a tougher job than many previously expected.