Pedro Pascal was a little drunk at tonight's Screen Actors Guild Awards, because he thought he could get drunk. Hey, you and me both, Pedro. I didn't anticipate that the ceremony, streamed on Netflix — no commercials, plenty of profanity — would boast many surprises. And outside of Pascal prevailing for 'The Last of Us' over the 'Succession' leads, and Elizabeth Debicki winning for 'The Crown' , there weren't.
Winner: 'Oppenheimer' The past: The winner of this award went on to take the best picture Oscar in 14 of 28 years, making it easily the SAG Awards’ least-trustworthy Oscar precursor. That said, three of the four past winners — 'Parasite,' 'CODA' and 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' prevailed at the Academy Awards too. Will history repeat itself? This really was the last chance for any kind of sliver of doubt to creep into the best picture race.
Winner: Lily Gladstone, 'Killers of the Flower Moon' The past: SAG and the academy have matched 21 of 29 years. Notable recent exceptions: Frances McDormand winning her third Oscar for 'Nomadland' after Viola Davis won SAG, and Olivia Colman denying 2019 SAG winner Glenn Close her first Oscar. Will history repeat itself? Looks like we have the kind of nail-biter that will give the Oscars a much-needed shot of suspense.
Winner: Cillian Murphy, 'Oppenheimer' The past: This category has been the most reliable indicator of Oscar victory, with SAG and the academy matching 23 of 29 times. There are exceptions, though, such as last year, when Anthony Hopkins won the Oscar for “The Father,” prevailing over SAG winner Chadwick Boseman . Will history repeat itself? Coming on the heels of his win with the British Film Academy last weekend, Murphy's prize pretty much assures he'll win the Oscar.
Winner: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, 'The Holdovers' The past: The SAG award winner has gone on to take the Oscar 21 of 28 times, including last year, when Jamie Lee Curtis won for 'Everything Everywhere All at Once,' a firm indication of the film's strength. Will history repeat itself? 'The Holdovers' premiered at the Telluride Film Festival on the last day of August.