Pandemic forecasting: Predicting events with the help of machine learning

The paper's senior author, Professor Anne-Louise Ponsonby, said quality forecasting is key to good decision-making.

or the economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted that not only is forecasting a difficult activity, but forecasting related to public health outcomes is particularly challenging.", which use the wisdom of crowds to predict specific outcomes, have previously outperformed other forecasting methods such as surveys, expert panels and polls in in some studies. The team analyzed deep data from a database of questions on COVID-19 posed on the Almanis forecasting platform run by Dysrupt Labs.

The two systems usually agreed in their predictions, but when they disagreed the hybrid model was likely to outperform the human-only model.

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