According to the study, the rail industry's response to price competition in the coal market indicates that they are likely to absorb a significant portion of any carbon tax or fee that may be applied to coal-burning plants. This would ultimately benefit the coal industry at the expense of the railroads and their shareholders.
Preonas also showed that railroads can only absorb a carbon tax for certain power plants. About 44% of U.S. coal-burning plants are served by a single railroad. Those plants are most reliant on their rail carrier, which means those carriers have higher profit margins and are better positioned to reduce costs to keep a coal plant operational.
The study underscores the need for future research to explore the long-term implications of market power among rail transportation companies, including their potential impact on coal-fired plant retirements and the fiscal health of coal mining communities. Preonas said that this work also serves as a broader call to incorporate market power distortions into climate policy projects for other carbon-intensive industries such as petroleum refining and aluminum production.
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