Q&A: Urban doom loop—what it is and how cities can stop it

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Recent images of downtown San Francisco—emptied of office workers now dialing in remote and filled with wandering homeless people—has struck fear for the future of urban areas. A Columbia University professor coined the term 'urban doom loop' for the downward spiral some cites seem to be on, as workers don't return, retail businesses shutter for lack of customers, residents flee to the suburbs, and city tax revenues decline, leading to fewer services, and then fewer residents.

aren't maintained, and so on—and yet the very revenue needed to make the city attractive again is simply not available.Every city and town has been negatively affected by COVID, but in some cases, COVID sadly highlighted just how bad things were prior to 2020. Public transportation provides a telling example. Before COVID, for example, getting from the suburbs to the urban downtown was a challenge in most cities in the country.

Boston has been on a loop of doom for decades, not because of COVID or some external force beyond the state's control, but rather because the state refuses to think regionally and recognize that for Boston to thrive, the suburbs and remaining rural portions of the state must do so, too.It is. Los Angeles, of course, is the king. New York comes a close second, but every major U.S.

The D.C. approach has set a dangerous precedent for urban transportation in the U.S. Fueling land development and unfettered speculation by laying out more and more rail lines without first having a plan to ensure that impacted cities, towns, and regions are prepared for what will follow is irresponsible.

These areas, often within the historic city limits or close to it, provide a tethering of suburbs and the urban core. Edge cities aren't without problems; the land they're developed on was the suburban fringe or rural countryside, and are now the site of office parks and retail shopping malls. Converting office to residential space is certainly a good idea in isolated instances, but once again the doom loop concern is triggered. If we're losing office space, then we're losing employment. Building more housing will satisfy developers, speculators, and bankers, and those who argue that all we need to do to fix our housing problem is build more housing.

Urban planning must be comprehensive, inclusive, and holistic. To avoid a doom loop, state and local leaders need to accept the reality that urban planning and urban governance is complicated and requires comprehensive thinking. Trying to address Boston's or New York's housing shortage or transportation woes isn't an isolated task solved by simply building more housing or more roads or expanding rail lines.

 

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