While it is conceivable, though unlikely, that Thailand’s entrenched monarchy and monarchised military would allow Move Forward’s Pita or Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin to become prime minister, such a scenario would likely lead right-wing political opponents to act to bring the coalition down.
2023 is extremely significant because it is the first time in at least two decades that all security commanders will be rotated simultaneously. The army is by far the most important service, with the others having a far smaller budget. Caretaker Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha can influence the forces who might stage a future coup by signing off on the military reshuffle list, which prime ministers must give to the king for endorsement each year. Prawit-loyalist Assistant Army Chief General Suksan Nongbualuang has a chance to beat out Jaroenchai as Army Commander, after which Pana would succeed him. Should Pita or Srettha become prime minister, they would likely prefer the weaker General Ukrit Boontanonda to be army chief.
Thailand’s progressive 2023 election winners are confronted by a gauntlet of obstacles. Move Forward and Pheu Thai face cases before the Election Commission and must pass the junta-appointed Senate.