New research from Stellenbosch University’s Research on Socioeconomic Policy Unit shows that almost half of publicly-employed teachers are aged 50+ in 2021, pointing to an approaching wave of teacher retirements.
Projections beyond 2021 of these numbers used the 2021 age distribution and past patterns of attrition from whatever cause. These projections indicate that leavers in this age group will However, using the group’s modelling, the researchers project that attrition numbers are projected to grow less in the younger age groups than for potential retirees, with the share of leavers 55 and older set to rise slightly from 49% in 2022 to 55% in 2031, before declining sharply thereafter.
“In addition, the number of learners in schools is still growing, in part because of reduced dropout and greater flows to Grade 12. This further expands the need for more teachers. Moreover, to improve the learner-educator ratio at least back to the levels that applied in 2011 would require even more additional teachers,” they said.
Of course the school’s in SA face a teacher shortage. Why would it be otherwise.