If Victoria eased coronavirus restrictions too early, there would be a more than 60 per cent chance of a lockdown having to be reimposed before Christmas, modelling carried out by the University of Melbourne for the state's Health Department has found.
At the moment, the 14-day average is 101, and will probably drop into double-digit figures on Monday. But at a press conference on Sunday, Premier Daniel Andrews said if restrictions were eased when the 14-day average dropped to five, there was a 3 per cent chance of case numbers increasing to the point that the state would have to go back into lockdown.
This graph shows how the state's 14-day average is tracking against the target. If the blue line showing the fortnightly average is within the green zone when it crosses the dotted line on September 28, restrictions will ease slightly: All these variables were fed into a supercomputer simulation, which played out the infection curve 1000 times. In 640 of those scenarios, it found cases rose to the point that restrictions had to be re-imposed before Christmas.Deputy Chief Health Officer Allen Cheng said the modelling was not about predicting the future, but provided the most likely outcome based on current information and the impact of lockdown measures.
CraigDButt ABC news and all the news outlets from around the world including world embassies, psychologist and doctors in Australia commented on my video
CraigDButt You copy day by day the European mistakes. Amazing. Lockdowns do nothing at all against Covid you just ruin everything else.
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CraigDButt the university of melbourne did the modelling!!!!! oh God help us!!!
CraigDButt This is far clearer & more comprehensive than what was presented at the briefing. I understand that we need a continuation of tight restrictions. But I don't believe the Govt only knew about this yesterday. We need, more transparent decision-making & more data.
CraigDButt Stay home 2 more weeks and get a better result stop winging most of us are children or grandchildren of immigrants who came post WWII ask them about loss of freedom and fear. This is nothing.
CraigDButt The media are completely to blame for fear mongering, using fake modelling to prolong lockdowns at the expense of freedoms.
CraigDButt You guys are so fu&ing incompetent that even Alan Jones will speak to Pete Evans. Absolute disgrace in this country the shit that comes out of the media. Brainwashed population. Fear mongering. Human rights breaches. Blood on your hands. I will happily welcome the class action
CraigDButt Actual footage of Dan Andrews' and UofM's SuperComputer