Victoria is on track to record around 30 new daily cases of COVID-19 at the end of the stage four lockdown, according to projections by a leading epidemiologist.
As Premier Daniel Andrews expressed optimism about the daily coronavirus count dropping to its lowest levels in five weeks, new modelling by Professor Blakely sheds light on the number of new daily cases we can expect to see within a few weeks.There are some limitations to Professor Blakely’s projections, which use COVID-19 trends over the past 10 days to predict what the next few weeks might look like before stage four restrictions are set to end on September 13.
'We have gone below 200 new daily cases. We are just starting to have a sweet spot for contact tracing.'"We have gone below 200 new daily cases. We are just starting to have a sweet spot for contact tracing," Professor Blakely said."The contact tracing workforce has fewer cases and they can start getting their arms across it."
Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said he wanted daily case numbers to fall below 50 by the end of stage four restrictions.
New modelling not even presented to the CMO
Lies. Lies. Lies. THE MEDIA AND OUR GOVERNMENT ARE THE VIRUS.
More accurate than the modeling from March?
Well the last one was 150,000, so this one could be anywhere from -50,000 to +500,000. Perhaps take the shoe size, divide by 2, add the year you were born and divide by 200 might get a closer figure. As for modelling, lets just leave it to attractive ladies on a catwalk !
We have minimal natural herd immunity. When the airports open the shitstorm will begin. Meanwhile in Sweden they are already lying on beaches, unmasked, enjoying their freedom.
DanLiedPeopleDied
TonyBlakely_PI I calculate the R rate at being around 0.8 for the last 12 days. Can you please help me understand why we haven’t seen a faster reduction given our current restrictions?
“nEw MoDeLiNg...”
ENOUGH WITH THE FUCKING MODELS, IT WAS YOUR DERANGED LAZY REPORTING OF THE FERGUSON MODEL THAT HELPED CREATE THIS DERANGED HELL ON EARTH OVER FUCKING NOTHING
Cases don't count. Nearly 90% of deaths are in nursing homes, or doesn't spread outdoors, & Andrews lied about 'rule breakers' to whip ppl into a frenzy against each other and justify this unconscionable madness.
I hope it more accurate the the modelling that showed we were going to have 1100 cases a day! 🙄
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